Decode Politics: How Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest may play out politically — for AAP, Opposition

Moreover, if the BJP comes across as unaffected by the recent arrests of the AAP chief, former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s (BRS) K Kavitha, more leaders from Opposition parties and fence-sitting regional parties may look to jump on to the BJP bandwagon.

Can AAP upend the Delhi script?

For the last 10 years, the politics of Delhi has seen voters make distinctive choices depending on the election they are voting in. They have supported Arvind Kejriwal in the Assembly elections, backing his welfare politics pitch that has seen work being done to improve the government school and healthcare systems.

As the numbers show, those who voted for the AAP in the Assembly elections chose the Narendra Modi-led BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, contested largely on national issues and not local ones in Delhi. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all seats in Delhi, securing 46.6% votes while the AAP, which secured 33% of the votes, failed to open its account. The Congress vote share was 15%. Months later, in the Assembly elections, the AAP secured 54.5% of the votes to win 67 seats out of 70 while the BJP won just three seats with 32.3-percent votes.

The same pattern returned five years later. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all seven seats with about 57% vote share, and the Congress and AAP drew a blank with 22.5% and 18.1% vote shares, respectively. In the Assembly polls the following year, the AAP won 62 seats out of 70 with 53% votes and the BJP won eight with 38% votes.

There is a possibility that Kejriwal’s high-profile arrest ends up helping the AAP break this pattern. Now it won’t just be national issues that dominate the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi as questions raised by the arrest of the first sitting CM will also be in the mix. The key will be largely Hindu voters in slums who have been beneficiaries of Kejriwal’s populist politics and if they will vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi or shift to an extent towards the AAP. If they do, Delhi may see a fight this time around in a few constituencies and the Congress-AAP alliance will fancy its chances to open the INDIA bloc’s account in the national capital in the parliamentary elections.

Can the AAP make gains in Punjab?

The one state where possible sympathy for Kejriwal may have the largest potential impact is Punjab, which has 13 seats. The BJP is weak in Punjab where there is a limited urban Hindu base.

The contest in the state as of now seems to be between the AAP and the Congress, which are INDIA allies in Delhi, Goa, Gujarat, and Haryana but are locked in direct contests in Punjab. If there is sympathy for Kejriwal in Punjab, the threat of losses will paradoxically loom large on the Congress that had won eight constituencies in 2019. If the AAP were to sweep Punjab — it won 92 of the 117 Assembly seats in the 2022 state elections — it is the Congress that may see a dent in its individual fortunes in the state and, by implication, in its overall tally.

Can the Opposition close ranks?

The story of the last two months was one of the consolidation of the NDA and the collapse of the Opposition INDIA alliance. Kejriwal’s arrest provides the Opposition with the opportunity to rally around the Delhi CM and gain some much-needed momentum.

Soon after the ED took the Delhi CM into custody on Thursday night, Opposition leaders ranging from Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjuna Kharge to MK Stalin, Pinarayi Vijayan and Akhilesh Yadav criticised the central agency. Mamata Banerjee called up Kejriwal’s wife Sunita in solidarity.

The question is to what extent Opposition parties will close ranks and what concrete measures they can put in place close to the polls as clashing interests of the Congress and dominant regional parties have made the INDIA bloc a non-starter in states such as West Bengal, Punjab, and Kerala. One reason is the weakness of one of the potential anti-BJP allies in some states. For instance, if the TMC had spared a good number of seats for the Congress, it may have put the BJP in a position of advantage in those seats as has happened in states such as UP and Bihar, where the Congress’ strike rate in alliance is lower.