India and the two wars that dominated 2023

As 2023 comes to an end, we take a look at the conflicts that dominated geopolitics this year, and India’s role.

Russia-Ukraine War 

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has deep historical roots but has escalated significantly in recent years due to various geopolitical, ethnic, and historical factors. In 2014, tensions soared when Russia annexed Crimea, a region historically part of Ukraine but with a majority ethnic Russian population. This was followed by Ukraine’s political unrest, notably the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv, where Ukrainians sought closer ties with the European Union. The then president Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an EU association agreement triggered these protests, leading to his ousting in February 2014.

After Yanukovych fled to Russia, pro-Russian sentiments flared in Crimea. Russian military intervention swiftly ensued, with masked troops, later confirmed as Russian, seizing key locations. A disputed referendum in Crimea led to its annexation by Russia in March 2014, a move not recognised by Ukraine or the majority of the international community.

Simultaneously, unrest erupted in eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where pro-Russian separatists declared independence, leading to a conflict between Ukrainian forces and separatist groups. The Ukrainian government accused Russia of supporting and arming these rebels, a claim Russia denied despite mounting evidence of its involvement.

A view shows a kitchen inside an apartment block heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine January 15, 2023 (Rueters)

This conflict led to ongoing violence in the eastern regions of Ukraine, with clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists, resulting in casualties and displacement of civilians. The situation remained complex due to Russia’s denial of direct involvement and the continuous accusations of support for separatists.

Efforts to de-escalate the conflict took place through various peace talks, notably the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, which aimed to establish a ceasefire and a roadmap for a resolution. However, these agreements faced challenges in implementation due to violations from both sides, leading to continued hostilities.

The conflict escalated in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, seizing significant swaths of territory in the southern and eastern parts of the country, specifically the Donbas region. After a year of Russian gains, the conflict has come to somewhat of a stalemate in 2023, with neither side making considerable headway. Nevertheless, 2023 was a significant year for both sides.

Putin had expected to occupy Donbas by March 2023, but he encountered resistance at Bakhmut, which led to a protracted siege that claimed many lives. About 100,000 people were injured in Russia, including 20,000 fatalities, and significant losses were also incurred by Ukraine. In June, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russian troops.

Russia claims to have stalled the Ukraine counteroffensive, a view shared by many international observers. In an article for Foreign Policy magazine, Nona Mikhelidze and Nathalie Tocci, both of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, argue that while Ukrainian forces managed to extract a significant toll on Russian lives and military resources, the gains have been marginal at best. They write that “alongside lackluster Ukrainian counteroffensive, the fear that the tables are turning in Russia’s favor is adding to the war fatigue among Western nations and eliciting calls for negotiations.”

In the two years since the invasion, Ukraine has managed to recapture 54 per cent of occupied territory but Russia still controls 18 per cent of the country. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities and blockade its ports while Ukraine has responded with drone strikes on Russian ships and infrastructure. Roughly, 22,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, 5.1 million people internally displaced, 6.2 million have fled the country, and 17.6 million are in need of humanitarian assistance.

With the war at a relative standstill, that assistance may be hard to come by. So far, Ukraine has received over US $230 billion in aid and funding, US $75 billion of which has come from Washington. However, as of mid-November, the US had spent nearly 97 per cent of funding allocated towards Ukraine and the State Department has announced that no further financial packages will be provided until Congress approves a supplemental proposal of US $60 billion. Without funding, Ukraine will be hard pressed to resist Russian advances given the considerable numerical and financial advantage possessed by the latter.

“We support Ukraine or Ukraine loses the war,” said Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington. Voices from Ukraine paint a similar picture. According to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the war is teetering on the precipice of a stalemate with the odds in Russia’s favour. Against that backdrop, many are calling for negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. 

Israel-Hamas conflict 

The Israel-Palestine conflict traces back to the late 19th century, intensifying after Israel’s establishment in 1948, which led to the displacement of Palestinians. The Six-Day War and Yom Kippur War resulted in territorial shifts. The Camp David Accords of 1978 normalised Egypt-Israel relations but left Palestinian self-determination unresolved. The Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995 aimed for Palestinian self-governance met with challenges too. The Second Intifada in 2000 and the construction of the West Bank barrier in 2002 further exacerbated tensions.

In 2006, Hamas won the elections for control of the Gaza strip, following which Israeli forces largely exited the region. There have been clashes between Hamas and Israel, notably in 2014, 2018 and 2020 but none at the scale of what is being witnessed today.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict significantly escalated this year after Hamas gunmen launched an unprecedented assault on Israel on October 7, killing over 1,200 people and taking over 200 hostages. A day later, Israel pounded Gaza, killing hundreds in retaliation for one of the bloodiest attacks in its history. 

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant then ordered the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to impose a “complete siege” on Gaza. Fighting between Israel and Hamas resumed after a weeklong ceasefire in late November that involved several prisoner swaps and more frequent aid deliveries.

Israeli security stand in position on a road following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, near Sderot in southern Israel October 8, 2023. (Reuters)

UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the situation in Gaza has descended into a “catastrophe” following Hamas’s onslaught. As of December 18, Israel’s reprisal has killed at least 21,000 individuals including over 8000 children. 

Israel seeks to wipe out Hamas by eliminating the majority of its armed personnel as well as its leaders. Israel claimed to have killed some 7,000 Hamas cadres as of mid-December, out of the approximately 25,000-strong Hamas army that existed prior to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, many of whom were important operational leaders. However, the situation is complicated by a number of factors that could result in protracted conflict.

Gaza is heavily influenced by Hamas. Since 2007, it has ruled the strip, raising a generation under its thumb. It has a stronghold among the Gaza refugee community and collaborates closely with the clans of Gaza. It governed mosques, hospitals, and schools long before 2007; it was involved in nearly every facet of life.

Before the current conflicts started, Gaza, a tiny enclave, was going through a serious humanitarian disaster — 95 per cent of the population lacks access to potable water due to Israel’s sixteen-year siege, and over half of Gazans are dependent on foreign aid for basic necessities, according to Human Rights Watch. According to international classifications by the UN, around 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are refugees, and Palestinians make up the biggest stateless community in the world.

In an article titled What has Hamas Accomplished, Georgetown University Professor Daniel Byman writes that following the outbreak of war, support for Hamas has also increased in the Arab world. He states that Israel’s response to the attack has “infuriated” many Palestinians who previously were not Hamas supporters.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict appeared to be forgotten by the world for many years. Although Arab nations paid lip service to the problem, they generally ignored it, while the United States concentrated on China and Russian aggression in Ukraine. The Palestinian problem is now the main focus.

India, the intermediary  

In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack, Prime Minister Modi joined other world leaders in expressing solidarity with Israel. As the conflict escalated, India also abstained from a UN resolution that called for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire”.

Historically, India has been closely aligned with the Palestinian cause. At the Voice of the Global South Summit, PM Modi condemned the Hamas attacks of October 7 and called for restraint, dialogue and diplomacy in resolving the conflict. During Independence, Indian leaders largely sided with Palestinian nationalists and despite recognising Israel in 1950, maintained cool relations with the Jewish state. India was one of the first countries to recognise Palestine in 1988. However, since assuming office, Modi has balanced his support for Palestine (becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the Occupied West Bank) with a pragmatic approach towards relations with Israel. 

Israel is not only India’s second largest weapons provider, but also a strategic ally in combating terrorism. As Kadira Pethiyagoda, author of Indian Foreign Policy and Cultural Values, notes for Foreign Policy magazine, Modi’s support for Israel is rooted in their shared need to fight Islamic militants. “The public messaging of this viewpoint,” he writes, “is this: Israel fights Islamic militants, and so does India; therefore, we should be allies.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin Wednesday. (Image source: X/ @DrSJaishankar)

India has however maintained its relations with both Palestine and Israel. India approached the conflict from a global perspective, aiming not only to engage with the Middle East as a South Asian regional power but as a dominant actor on the international stage, says Pethiyagoda. This, he states, is in line with New Delhi’s overarching strategic vision of a multipolar world in which India is one of the poles.

That being said, India’s involvement in the Middle East pales in comparison to its role in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. India has long had friendly ties with Russia that date back to the early days of the Cold War. Although India’s reliance on Russian weaponry is gradually decreasing, Moscow is India’s largest arms supplier, providing 45 per cent of Indian defence imports. Russia also accounts for 40 per cent of India’s oil imports, a number that has risen exponentially since 2021, as a pragmatic response to falling Russian oil prices.

Despite these historic relations between Moscow and New Delhi, since the start of the conflict in 2022, India has been courted by both sides. Prime Minister Modi has met with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and has vowed to do “everything we can” to help end the war. So far, India has balanced its neutrality effectively. While New Delhi abstained from condemning the invasion at the UN, it has also not voted with Russia on any occasion at the UN.

After Modi’s meeting with Zelenskyy in May, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval have since met to discuss bilateral relations and Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan. Modi has also urged Putin to use “dialogue and diplomacy” to end the war.

India’s position as an arbiter between the two nations best encapsulates its foreign policy heading into 2024. As External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar pointed out, “India would not have been able to valuably mediate and help ease the situation if it had done what the West wanted it to do during the early stages of the war.” By maintaining ties with both nations, India has positioned itself as a global statesman. It has assumed a greater role on the international stage but crucially, has done so its own way.