What the 2024 Pakistan election means for the country’s shaky political history

Since then, the landscape of Pakistan elections has been shaped by intermittent periods of democratic governance interposed with military regimes. The military plays a crucial role in Pakistani politics and is considered to be the main driving force behind elections. As Indiana University Professor Sumit Ganguly argues in a book titled The Future of ISIS, no candidate can succeed without the support of the army chiefs and anyone who goes against the establishment risks arrest, exile or worse.  Throughout Pakistan’s turbulent past, military generals have both controlled elections and at times led the country themselves.

The 1970s were dominated by the loss of East Pakistan, and the implications that it had on the political parties in Pakistan Punjab. The 1980s witnessed the military rule of General Zia-ul-Haq followed by an oscillating political climate in the 1990s in which Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif emerged as prominent, albeit unstable, political figures.

The turn of the century brought both hope and setbacks with the early 2000s marred by General Pervez Musharraf’s regime, defined by divisive elections and political constraints. However, the latter half of the decade heralded a restoration of democratic norms, paving the way for free and fair elections in 2008, which led to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) forming the government.

Subsequent elections in 2013 witnessed a historic transfer of power from one civilian government to another, solidifying the democratic process and demonstrating the resilience of Pakistan’s electoral system. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) assumed power under Nawaz Sharif’s leadership, aiming for economic reforms and infrastructural development.

The 2018 elections were a watershed moment in the country’s democratic history, marked by intense political dynamics, widespread participation, and a fervent desire for change among the electorate. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) entered the elections with a strong anti-corruption and reformist agenda. PTI’s platform resonated particularly well with the youth and urban middle-class demographics, promising accountability, and a departure from the traditional political elite.

The incumbent PLM-N faced distinct challenges, compounded by the disqualification of Sharif, who had been barred from holding office by the Supreme Court as a result of a corruption case lodged against him. Despite these setbacks, PML-N maintained its stronghold in Punjab, the country’s most populous province, and continued to appeal to a loyal voter base. On July 25, 2018, millions of Pakistanis cast their votes amidst tight security measures. The elections were marred by sporadic incidents of violence and logistical challenges in some regions. As the results poured in, PTI emerged as the single largest party, securing a plurality of seats in the National Assembly, followed by PML-N and PPP.

After negotiations and coalition-building efforts, PTI managed to form a government, with Imran Khan taking oath as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan. However, like all his predecessors, Imran would fail to complete a full term in power. On April 3, 2022, the National Assembly’s Deputy Speaker Quasim Khan Suri dismissed a no-confidence vote against Imran, and soon after, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly under Imran’s advice. This triggered an intervention from the Supreme Court which held that Imran had no right to dissolve the Assembly, given that he was facing a no-confidence motion. The Court ruled that Imran had essentially conducted a constitutional coup and ordered the Assembly to be reconvened.

Shortly after midnight on April 10, the Assembly voted to remove Imran from office through a no-confidence motion. He was replaced by Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Shehbaz was subsequently replaced in August 2023 by Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, who would serve as interim Prime Minister until new elections were held.

Amid this backdrop, the 2024 elections stand at the precipice of shaping Pakistan’s future. The nation is grappling with multifaceted challenges, including economic revitalisation, security concerns, regional dynamics, and governance reforms. The electorate’s expectations are high, seeking responsive leadership, socio-economic stability, and effective governance.

Candidates

The three main contenders for the 2024 elections are Imran Khan’s PTI, Nawaz Sharif’s PLM-N, and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

The PTI was founded by Imran in 1996 on an anti-corruption platform. His charismatic leadership saw the party slowly rise in popularity, assuming office for the first time in 2018. However, he has since witnessed a reversal of fortunes, ousted from power in 2022 after losing the crucial support of the country’s military. He currently faces 200 court cases and has been imprisoned since August 2023.

Imran for his part has accused the military of targeting him, claiming that they had attempted to assassinate him. Some observers believed that his stand against the army would prove decisive for Pakistani politics, ushering in a new era of political participation independent of military interference.

However, as former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs Magazine, Imran made a crucial mistake that undermined his strategy. In May of this year, Imran’s supporters attacked army installations, provoking a harsh rebuttal which included him being banned from national television, and his supporters facing the prospect of being tried in military courts. Since then, his followers have been arrested en masse and many leaders of his party have quit, some under pressure from the military. According to Haqqani, “it seems unlikely that Khan’s challenge to the ruling establishment will ever be able to regain the strength it once seemed to possess.”

With Imran behind bars, the PTI elected Gohar Ali Khan to replace him. This, according to Imran’s own lawyers, represents a babysitting arrangement for the party, with Gohar Ali Khan vowing to step down once the conviction of Imran Khan is overturned. As of now, Imran Khan has been sentenced to 10 years in jail for leaking Pakistani state secrets.

Khan’s loss of favour represented a second chance for his political rival Shehbaz Sharif. Under Sharif, the PML-N, led by the Sharif family since the 1980s, has traditionally appealed to conservative and business-oriented factions. PML-N has held power multiple times, implementing economic reforms, infrastructure projects, and privatization initiatives during its tenures.

In 2017, after losing the support of the military, Nawaz Sharif was removed from office by the Supreme Court following revelations made about his financial dealings in the Panama Papers. In 2018 he was disqualified from holding public office and was sentenced to 10 years of imprisonment. A year later, Nawaz left Pakistan to go to London for medical treatment and subsequently failed to return. His exile proved short lived however, with his brother’s appointment signalling his return to power, a move that was firmly established after he returned to Pakistan earlier this year with the backing of the military.

Nawaz’s convictions are now predictably being overturned by the courts, and politicians from different parties are switching over to the PLM-N. However, given the unpopularity of his brother’s tenure – widely believed to have been run by Nawaz from London – it is unclear how he would fare in a general election.

Lastly, we have the PPP, founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1967. The PPP has maintained power for decades, run by the Bhutto family including Benazir Bhutto (who was assassinated,), her husband Asif Ali Zardari, and now, their son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari. The PPP is by far the most left-leaning of the three parties although its reputation has been sullied by allegations of corruption. The PPP have announced that Bilawal will be their next candidate for Prime Minister, and Zardari, for President.

2024 election

Given the shakeup in government, the Pakistani elections were postponed to February 2024, however, that decision has been met with considerable opposition. The election commission of Pakistan is facing accusations of redrawing the political map to favour Nawaz, and of delaying the election to give him time to campaign following his return from the UK.

A record 1300 objections have been raised across the country over the election process, notably concerning the proposed decision to merge two districts in Balochistan, despite them being 400 kilometres apart with no road connections.

Pakistan also faces domestic challenges, with Haqqani writing that it is “adrift in a sea of troubles.” First and foremost, its economy is in dire straits with GDP growth in the last year restricted to 0.29 per cent. Inflation meanwhile has risen to 29 per cent, and the country is engaged in a tense negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a renewal of bailout terms. Catastrophic flooding has further devastated the economy, forcing Pakistan, historically a wheat exporter, to import wheat.

Internationally, Pakistan has lost the support of key allies, including the United States. Since Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, military and economic assistance towards Pakistan has waned. India, meanwhile, has refused to engage with Pakistan until the latter acknowledges its role in backing terrorism.

Pakistan must additionally contend with domestic terrorism concerns, with the Pakistani Taliban growing increasingly brazen in its willingness to attack civilian and military targets. This was fuelled by the return of power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, enabled by Pakistan’s own policy of supporting the Afghan Taliban over the last few decades. This, Haqqani writes, has led even long-term allies of Pakistan in China and the Middle East, to cool their support for the struggling nation.

The 2024 elections will have a considerable impact on Pakistan’s ability to regain course.