Turkey’s opposition scores ‘historic victory’ against President Erdogan’s party in local elections: What happened?

The elections were seen as a de facto referendum on Erdogan — who had won the national election less than a year ago — and his party as the President had thrown all his energy into campaigning for the AK Party’s candidates.

Here is a look at the election results, the reasons behind the loss of Erdogan’s party, and the significance of the results.

The results

On Sunday, millions of Turkish voters went to the polls to elect thousands of local administrations, including district municipal mayors and municipal councillors. Results showed that while the CHP gained 37% of the votes nationwide, the AK Party’s vote share dropped to 36%, down from 44% in 2019. This was the first time that the AK Party lost the popular vote, according to a report by Foreign Policy.

The biggest upset for Erdogan and his party was the loss of Istanbul — a city of nearly 16 million people which accounts for 30% of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP). The President, who grew up in Istanbul and was elected as the city’s mayor in 1994, hoped that his party candidate, Murat Kurum, would defeat the incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

In 2019, Imamoglu ended the years of AK Party rule in Istanbul with the support of other opposition parties. After the opposition unity fell apart in 2023 due to the presidential election defeat, Erdogan saw an opportunity to overturn Imamoglu’s 2019 victory. However, Imamoglu defeated Kurum by around 10 percentage points, taking 51% of the vote. This marked the highest margin of victory for an Istanbul mayor in 40 years, the Foreign Policy report said.

Another notable loss for the AK Party was the city of Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Incumbent CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas received 60.4% of the vote, far ahead of AKP opponent Turgut Altinok’s 32%.

The CHP now controls broad swathes of the west, south and north of Turkey. The AK Party “continues to dominate central Turkey and had more success in areas of the south-east devastated by the February 2023 double earthquake,” according to a report by the BBC.

Reason for the AK Party’s defeat

The biggest factor behind the loss of Erdogan’s party is the state of the economy of Turkey. The country has been witnessing high levels of inflation for years now. While official figures estimate that inflation hit nearly 70% in February, unofficial numbers suggest the figure to be closer to 100%, according to the Foreign Policy report. Skyrocketing inflation has severely affected the lives of most Turks as they are suffering from a cost of living crisis. It has also massively devalued the lira, which is Tukey’s national currency.

Ali Faik Demir, a political scientist at Galatasaray University, told the news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP): “When Turkish people vote, the situation in the kitchen or on their plate changes the voting trend”. The biggest voting changes happen “when we cannot afford a living, when we cannot eat”, he added.

Significance of the results

The results are likely to boost the morale of the opposition, which was left in disarray and deeply divided after a defeat against Erdogan and his party in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections.

The thumping victory of Imamoglu has also cemented his position as not only a leader but also the main opponent of Erdogan. Given his stature, popularity, sense of media, and ambitions, Imamoglu could also be a contestant in future presidential races, according to a report by France 24.

For Erdogan, the loss could mean the end of the road for his political career. Although Erdogan had announced that the 2023 presidential elections would be his last, many observers expected him to bring in a new constitution to allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends. This is unlikely to happen now.