Turbat, Dasu, Gwadar: Terror attacks in Pakistan are of its own making

Chinese personnel and interests have borne the brunt of periodic terror attacks in Pakistan in spite of the constitution of a special force to protect them. With a number of Chinese personnel in Pakistan in connection with the CPEC projects, this is a serious issue for the Chinese and is a matter of discussion between the two sides. While displaying equanimity publicly, the Chinese are reported to have leaned heavily on the Pakistanis behind the scenes to counter this threat effectively.

With the CPEC, China is more deeply invested in Pakistan than ever before. The Xinjiang-Gwadar linkage is too valuable for them to walk away from. An exit route for the Chinese to the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean, it bypasses the maritime choke points in the east. Therefore, while calling for a thorough investigation into the killing of their personnel, the Chinese have said that any attempt to undermine China-Pakistan cooperation would not succeed and China will continue to support Pakistan’s economic and social development.

The terror quandary: Who’s responsible?

However, the fraught security situation is one of the major factors that have slowed the progress of the CPEC projects, including the expansion of the Gwadar port. The other factors are the low absorption capacity of the Pakistani economy, administrative bottlenecks and controversies among Pakistani stakeholders on various projects.

Pakistan reflexively blames India for the terror on its soil to hide the reality of its own flawed policies over the years that are responsible for its terror quandary. These include the alienation of its ethnic minorities, particularly in Balochistan and the tribal belt; encouragement to religious extremism and sectarianism; use of terror as an instrument of state policy; and an injudicious approach towards its neighbours. Pakistan has had a festering border management problem with Iran, with both sides accusing each other of harbouring terrorists. Its heavy investment in the Afghan Taliban to gain strategic depth in Afghanistan has not paid the desired dividends.

The Taliban regime in Kabul rejects the Durand Line and has failed to curb the violent activities of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Afghan soil despite persistent Pakistani demands. There has been a sharp uptick in TTP attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban takeover in Kabul. Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) has claimed some deadly attacks both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has had flare-ups with Iran and Afghanistan in recent months.

How does this affect India?

Pakistan has followed exploitative policies in Balochistan since its inception. China has become complicit in these policies over the years through its projects that have brought little benefit or employment opportunities to the local people. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project run by the Chinese and construction activities in relation to the Gwadar port are some examples. This has caused resentment against them amongst the local populace. China’s activities in the strategically located Balochistan, particularly the potential projection of its naval power from Gwadar and other Pakistani ports, sitting close to the Strait of Hormuz, have been a matter of concern for countries of the region and beyond. Not surprisingly, the then Interior Minister of Pakistan Rehman Malik had said in 2012 that 14 organisations were operating in Balochistan, and both “friends” and “foes” of Pakistan were equally involved in financing and encouraging them.

Responding to the recent attacks, the Pakistani establishment has vowed to crush the resurgence of terrorism. This hackneyed response essentially signals the doubling down on the use of force — a failed strategy in the past. What is needed is a radical shift in Pakistan’s internal and external orientation, which is nowhere on the horizon. Flashes of wisdom and pragmatism in the discourse of the Pakistani establishment have remained just that. The new Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, who is close to Nawaz Sharif, has said that the policy of suspension of trade with India since August 2019 will now be reviewed. Only time will tell if it results in anything positive. However, should Pakistan take a constructive approach, we must respond positively. In the meantime, we should take all the necessary steps to protect ourselves from the rising wave of terror in our neighbourhood. That it will not remain confined to the Af-Pak region is evident from the reported involvement of ISIS-K in the terror attacks in Kerman (Iran) in January this year and Moscow recently.

The writer is a former high commissioner to Pakistan and author of India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship